Recent BT brinjal debate has brought forward issues related to science of brinjal production, regulatory aspects of impact of brinjal production on human health and food security, probability of development of super insect. But for the time being if we just put these lenses aside and consider - "Why will a farmer adopt a BT brinjal", then the answer to that question could be seen through certain behavioural lenses.
Contextualising the debate through that lense, in this blog, I would just focus on certain behavioural dimensions of a farmer that finally determines the procurment or non procurement decision of BT brinjal by a farmer. New technologies like BT brinjal has a risk dimension associated with it. Risk arises from uncertainties regarding the effect of use of BT brinjal on food security, health safety and uncertainties due to other negative externalities (like gene transfer, transfer of genes to other varieties grown in the same soil) arising from use of BT brinjal. On the other hand a farmer could get the benefit of using this kind of technology from an enhancement of productivity, yield and income generation as has been observed in many instances in Gujarat in case of BT cotton.
Then what guides a farmer decision of buying a BT variety of brinjal? Any farmer who is a human being is guided by fear of uncertainties that a technology poses and also by how much the risk management aspects of the technological uncertainties are in the farmer's domain of control. Larger the chance of not being able to manage such uncertainties, greater would be the probability that the farmer would be risk averse to adopt such a new technology. Parallely it also depends how visa vis the uncertainties the farmer perceives the benefits in the short, medium and long term. Before taking a decision of adopting a new technological product a farmer actually would use something called "discount factor" in his/her own jugadu way and would come up with the discounted benefits and costs during the time of adoption of the technological product. Once the benefits are higher than the costs the farmer would adopt the product.
While doing that discounting, a farmer would also consider what is the chance and time frame in which such a technology could become obsolete and the farmer would use his/her own expectation hypothesis to come up with a time frame in which a new technological product could come in. However while doing that discounting, a farmer needs to be fully aware of all kinds of information about the technology. Any assymmetry in information regarding the technology could lead to an incorrect discounting by the farmer that could thereby lead to a wrong decision of a farmer. The public authorities are therefore highly responsible to pass on that information to the farmer so that a farmer could take a sound decision at any point of time regarding adoption of a technological product like BT Brinjal. All information should be passed on to the farmer and then the farmer should be given the freedom to make a decision. In this regard, each farmer could have different set of discount factors and based on each farmer's discount factor the farmer could turn out to be risk averse, neutral or lover.
Adoption of a technological product like BT brinjal by a farmer is an outcome of a whole set of simulation process that goes in the mind of a farmer. Such a process simulates set of information regarding the risks, benefits, costs and probabilities of risk management associated with adoption of a technological good. The agents of society has to provide the authenticated scientific information to farmer so that he/she could simulate well and could apply his/her own set of expectation hypothesis regarding the costs and benefits of a technology. Discounting by the farmers also need to be done on the possible chances of a technology revision over a certain time frame.
The BT brinjal debate has really thrown forward a new stream of research vision that could be explored using the lense of behavioural tools in analysing technology adoption decisions of a farmer.
A recent paper by Judith Chevalier and Austan Goolsbee in quarterly journal of economics about the nature of forward looking behaviour of consumers could throw light in studying the nature of forward looking behaviour of farmers although the mentioned paper uses a very different set of consumers for analysing the forward looking behavioural pattern.
The point which is important is that there is a need to use a lense of behavioural tools of economics in studying the farmer behaviour pattern with regard to new technological product adoption decisions. The philosophical discourse of such a transdisciplinary lense could come from various other streams of research (even from tools of research dealing with pscychological aspects of a farmer that determines the nature of discounting) where various behavioural tools are applied to analyse new technological product adoption decisions. The days of more cross disciplinary thinking for studying new technological product adoption has arrived. Its high time we start it soon for the benefit of our farmers at the grass root and for the society at large.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Sunday, February 7, 2010
ET 604 to South South Cooperation:
ET 604 to South South Cooperation:
ET – 604, a flight of Ethiopian airlines from New Delhi to Addis Ababa criss crosses the Simien mountain mass (which is a broad kind of plateau) while landing in the Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. The southern part of the mountain mass has simien escarpments that looks like the grand canyon of U.S.A. Immediately from the plane itself, I felt that the long cherished dreams that I used to have while reading the fiction story ‘Chander Pahad” by Bibhutibhushan Bandopadhyay got partially fulfilled. Reaching in addis, felt to do some research at the end of the day’s meetings on the wildlife of Ethiopia as an action point of fulfilling the cherished dreams of school days. Certain facts came up from a travel guide book which revealed that the awash national park of Ethiopia is one of the most treasured wild life reserve of Ethiopia which is 225 km east of addis ababa. The forest reserve is bordered by awash river. The wild life also comprises of 1800 m Fantalle volcano. The bale mountain national park is also one of the important forest reserve of Ethiopia.
But to push the realization of the dream of learning about local issues, I got only one Sunday (7th February) in Addis the day when there was no meeting or any presentation that had to be given. On Sunday, I went to Mount Tato, a highland area on the outskirts of Addis. From the top of mount tato one could see the entire Addis Ababa city. The car which was driven by Bruke, an orthodox Christian stopped at downhills of Mount Tato from where we (Bruke and I) started trekking. On our way towards the top highland of Mount Tato, Bruke and I got involved in a very interesting discussion about cultural practices of an orthodox Christian. Bruke informed me that Sunday was his last day of meat eating and for the next two months he would eat vegeteranian food and would always pray about well being of people around him to practice orthodox Christianity. On our way towards the Mount Tato we got engaged in a discussion about spirituality, religion, challenges and opportunities in Africa and India. On our way towards the highland area of Mount Tato, the discussion between Bruke and myself got a halt as my attention went towards a series of chopped of trees on the road side. After a discussion with local people and bruke, I came to know these trees are being cut off and the wood of the trees are used in the booming construction activities of addis. The villagers cut off these woods and then sell each bundle of woods at 20 birr which is the only source of income for the villagers. Alternate income generation activities for these people in small scale plantation work and vegetation restoration activities in the hills could be helpful for sustainable development of the villagers of this area. This area is also facing soil erosion problem and plantation of soil binding species could help in checking soil erosion. As we walked up towards the plain land area of the Mt. Tato, Bruke showed me some trees called “Bawarzef” (as they are called in Amharic). We went to the steep slopes and plucked some leaves from the tree. Bruke suggested to squeeze and smash the leaf and then inhale the smell of the leaf. I followed Bruke’s suggestion and did that and felt that somebody has sprinkled vicks vapour in my nose. Bruke said that the local people use these leaves to cure influenza, fever, cough and cold. The gift of indigenous species of nature was felt by me immediately and realized the beauty of mother earth. The local people also taught me how from the difference in the colour patterns of the leaves one could say which leaf is a better vicks vapour, cetzene, paracetamol in comparison to the other. Finally both of us reached the top of highland zone of Mount. Tato and Bruke told me that he would like me to get into the St. Mary church that was located in the stopping point of our short trekking route. Bruke and I entered the church and he taught me the ways of praying to mother Mary and Jesus in an orthodox way. I prayed with him and felt that South South Cooperation is all about this. Bruke’s eyes were full of tears when he saw me (a Hindu by birth and Indian by nationality) worshipping with him in the church. As we came out of the church we saw a local music store with a poster of Hritick Roshan and Priyanka Chopra starring in the movie Krissh. Bruke was spontaneous to look at me and said immediately that he follows Bollywood since 80s and is a fan of Bollywood music. As a gift from an Indian, I sang two Hindi songs for him immediately and could see the appearance of goosebumps near Bruke’s neck. He was happy and emotional at the same time and was shedding tears in happiness. The South South Cooperation vision germinated immediately and while coming down from the hills, in the long range I could see the construction activities of Addis below and with me on Mount Tato there were the local people, bruke and the realities of Mount Tato. I realized the journey for South South Cooperation has just begun and there is a long way to go.
ET – 604, a flight of Ethiopian airlines from New Delhi to Addis Ababa criss crosses the Simien mountain mass (which is a broad kind of plateau) while landing in the Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. The southern part of the mountain mass has simien escarpments that looks like the grand canyon of U.S.A. Immediately from the plane itself, I felt that the long cherished dreams that I used to have while reading the fiction story ‘Chander Pahad” by Bibhutibhushan Bandopadhyay got partially fulfilled. Reaching in addis, felt to do some research at the end of the day’s meetings on the wildlife of Ethiopia as an action point of fulfilling the cherished dreams of school days. Certain facts came up from a travel guide book which revealed that the awash national park of Ethiopia is one of the most treasured wild life reserve of Ethiopia which is 225 km east of addis ababa. The forest reserve is bordered by awash river. The wild life also comprises of 1800 m Fantalle volcano. The bale mountain national park is also one of the important forest reserve of Ethiopia.
But to push the realization of the dream of learning about local issues, I got only one Sunday (7th February) in Addis the day when there was no meeting or any presentation that had to be given. On Sunday, I went to Mount Tato, a highland area on the outskirts of Addis. From the top of mount tato one could see the entire Addis Ababa city. The car which was driven by Bruke, an orthodox Christian stopped at downhills of Mount Tato from where we (Bruke and I) started trekking. On our way towards the top highland of Mount Tato, Bruke and I got involved in a very interesting discussion about cultural practices of an orthodox Christian. Bruke informed me that Sunday was his last day of meat eating and for the next two months he would eat vegeteranian food and would always pray about well being of people around him to practice orthodox Christianity. On our way towards the Mount Tato we got engaged in a discussion about spirituality, religion, challenges and opportunities in Africa and India. On our way towards the highland area of Mount Tato, the discussion between Bruke and myself got a halt as my attention went towards a series of chopped of trees on the road side. After a discussion with local people and bruke, I came to know these trees are being cut off and the wood of the trees are used in the booming construction activities of addis. The villagers cut off these woods and then sell each bundle of woods at 20 birr which is the only source of income for the villagers. Alternate income generation activities for these people in small scale plantation work and vegetation restoration activities in the hills could be helpful for sustainable development of the villagers of this area. This area is also facing soil erosion problem and plantation of soil binding species could help in checking soil erosion. As we walked up towards the plain land area of the Mt. Tato, Bruke showed me some trees called “Bawarzef” (as they are called in Amharic). We went to the steep slopes and plucked some leaves from the tree. Bruke suggested to squeeze and smash the leaf and then inhale the smell of the leaf. I followed Bruke’s suggestion and did that and felt that somebody has sprinkled vicks vapour in my nose. Bruke said that the local people use these leaves to cure influenza, fever, cough and cold. The gift of indigenous species of nature was felt by me immediately and realized the beauty of mother earth. The local people also taught me how from the difference in the colour patterns of the leaves one could say which leaf is a better vicks vapour, cetzene, paracetamol in comparison to the other. Finally both of us reached the top of highland zone of Mount. Tato and Bruke told me that he would like me to get into the St. Mary church that was located in the stopping point of our short trekking route. Bruke and I entered the church and he taught me the ways of praying to mother Mary and Jesus in an orthodox way. I prayed with him and felt that South South Cooperation is all about this. Bruke’s eyes were full of tears when he saw me (a Hindu by birth and Indian by nationality) worshipping with him in the church. As we came out of the church we saw a local music store with a poster of Hritick Roshan and Priyanka Chopra starring in the movie Krissh. Bruke was spontaneous to look at me and said immediately that he follows Bollywood since 80s and is a fan of Bollywood music. As a gift from an Indian, I sang two Hindi songs for him immediately and could see the appearance of goosebumps near Bruke’s neck. He was happy and emotional at the same time and was shedding tears in happiness. The South South Cooperation vision germinated immediately and while coming down from the hills, in the long range I could see the construction activities of Addis below and with me on Mount Tato there were the local people, bruke and the realities of Mount Tato. I realized the journey for South South Cooperation has just begun and there is a long way to go.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
'Joint Families and IIM Institutes - What do they have common?'
What does 'Joint Families' and 'IIM Institutes' have in common? 'IIM Institutes' are expected to produce country's best managers to tackle business problems and foster, promote business decisions, growth. A good manager understands the traits of all the people who are critical for business and comes up with the best possible inputs from the people leading to the optimal business decisions at a given time.
In this context, joint families contribute a lot as they also help us in learning the various possible shades and underpinnings of human relationships, traits and teaches an individual how to manage the inputs of family members with the primary objective of maintaining the unit of family enhancing the social capital and wellfare at a given point of time. Possibly in practical terms, such trainings in a joint family could be more successful than the semester trained HR courses. Although joint families would not give the degree that IIM institutes give to have a social standing in terms of CTCs, financial and capital assets (which could be philosophically questioned and that is not again the subject matter of this blog). But in terms of managerial training, joint families really contribute in developing selflessness, leadership qualities, sense of understanding each other to become good manager that might not necessarily develop in management programmes.
In today's cut throat competitive corporate world, such selfless leadership could really go a long way in developing good managers that build goodwill of a company. Specially, in a corporate world of India fraught by fraudulent practices (post Satyam scam) it is really essential to produce managers with strong sense of integrity, honesty.
Having spent the first 18 - 19 years of life in a joint family of 30 people in Kolkata, everyday was a learning exercise. During those years, I had learnt from my mom (analogous to the CEO manager of the family/corporate unit) and her colleagues (counterpart of divisional managers of the large family/corporate unit) how selflessness, actions for building trust, security, integrity, dignity, respect within and between family members should be practised in minutest things and aspects to manage the family. Joint family could in the long run give directions towards building such managerial and leadership qualities.
A management institute could produce good managers for corporate sector. Similarly, the same managerial qualities could be produced by a grooming up in a joint family that builds in the essence and importance of valuing social capital that is an essential, integral component of today's efficient corporate manager.
The importance of such values in corporate managers would increase only in future at the backdrop of the growing advent of global movement of financial capital.
Anando
In this context, joint families contribute a lot as they also help us in learning the various possible shades and underpinnings of human relationships, traits and teaches an individual how to manage the inputs of family members with the primary objective of maintaining the unit of family enhancing the social capital and wellfare at a given point of time. Possibly in practical terms, such trainings in a joint family could be more successful than the semester trained HR courses. Although joint families would not give the degree that IIM institutes give to have a social standing in terms of CTCs, financial and capital assets (which could be philosophically questioned and that is not again the subject matter of this blog). But in terms of managerial training, joint families really contribute in developing selflessness, leadership qualities, sense of understanding each other to become good manager that might not necessarily develop in management programmes.
In today's cut throat competitive corporate world, such selfless leadership could really go a long way in developing good managers that build goodwill of a company. Specially, in a corporate world of India fraught by fraudulent practices (post Satyam scam) it is really essential to produce managers with strong sense of integrity, honesty.
Having spent the first 18 - 19 years of life in a joint family of 30 people in Kolkata, everyday was a learning exercise. During those years, I had learnt from my mom (analogous to the CEO manager of the family/corporate unit) and her colleagues (counterpart of divisional managers of the large family/corporate unit) how selflessness, actions for building trust, security, integrity, dignity, respect within and between family members should be practised in minutest things and aspects to manage the family. Joint family could in the long run give directions towards building such managerial and leadership qualities.
A management institute could produce good managers for corporate sector. Similarly, the same managerial qualities could be produced by a grooming up in a joint family that builds in the essence and importance of valuing social capital that is an essential, integral component of today's efficient corporate manager.
The importance of such values in corporate managers would increase only in future at the backdrop of the growing advent of global movement of financial capital.
Anando
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
How real estate brokers help in brain gain?
Real estate brokers and brain gain! Isn't this a tenous connection? Before elaborating on that let me reflect a little on some flash back facts of the year 1999. This was a year when I gave the higher secondary examination and after securing a low rank in West Bengal Joint Entrance examination decided to shift towards studying a new subject. One of the aspirations during that time was to pursue and love a subject so that one day could land up in United States (may be driven very marginally by a colonial hangover and illusion also, that gradually cleared and started changing during 2004 - 2006 while working) for higher learning credentials and also could earn some dollars. The motivation to dream in that way for some time was also to save hard currency like dollars (at least definitely during that time) to buy house back in India so that our family could have a feeling of living in our own house. So I used to think that would go to U.S to earn money, degree and come back to the country and stay in our own (non rented) house for the first time. I am sure this is the story of many Indians who go to U.S, earn dollars and invest back in the country in real estates as they want to come back to the country and settle here living in their own house after buying real estate properties. Assurance of a property back at home after investments can act as one of the levers towards helping our people to come back to their own nation.
Real Estate regime therefore has a role to play in this brain gain. But the role of the real estate brokers also holds a key in this brain gain. Recent data shows that most of the Indians who have gone abroad to earn their living, have become NRIs and planning to return to India invests in real estate properties in India through brokers. Many times the broker is found to be corrupt and money of the NRIs are lost. Transparent information dissemination to the NRIs by the agents also often doesnot happen that starts acting as a hindering factor towards return of the NRIs back in the country that could impinge on the brain gain. The performance and nature of the brokers is very important in ensuring that the money of the NRIs are used properly in genuine real estate properties. An agency is always better than a broker because the risk of fraudulent practices could be higher in case of an individual as the uncertainty regarding the behaviour of an unknown individual is higher than the agency. Also the people planning to come back to the country should be cautious of the asset in which the broker is putting the money. Ideally NRIs should check whether their money is put in real estates developed by renowned developers or in real estate projects towards completion. True information disclosure by the real estate agent to the NRI and its subsequent monitoring can fasten the building of trust between the agent and the NRI. Class of real estate asset also holds key regarding how fast the NRI could realise the dream of actually living in a new home in his/her home country after the money has been invested in that asset class.
Also, property grabbing often acts as a barrier for the NRIs who are planning to come back to their country. Efficient laws, speedy recoveries of property, punishment of all agents involved in such property grabbing could work and help in brain gain. Punjab has already amended the East Punjab Urban Rent Restriction Act of 1949 to sort out the cases of property grabbing of NRIs.
This kind of legal reforms along with laws regulating unaccountable practices of brokers could go a long way in bringing back the people (who want to come back to the country and settle in their own homes in India by buying properties in India in a post financial crisis regime) and that could lead to a brain gain for the nation.
Even we could set an example for our neighbouring nation like China where significant brain gain has been happening but in a very different way. Definitely we have to work towards this brain gain through our own "Jugaadu", innovative way. That's why our nation is so interesting as a place to stay and as a subject of research, policy making and implementation.
Anando
Real Estate regime therefore has a role to play in this brain gain. But the role of the real estate brokers also holds a key in this brain gain. Recent data shows that most of the Indians who have gone abroad to earn their living, have become NRIs and planning to return to India invests in real estate properties in India through brokers. Many times the broker is found to be corrupt and money of the NRIs are lost. Transparent information dissemination to the NRIs by the agents also often doesnot happen that starts acting as a hindering factor towards return of the NRIs back in the country that could impinge on the brain gain. The performance and nature of the brokers is very important in ensuring that the money of the NRIs are used properly in genuine real estate properties. An agency is always better than a broker because the risk of fraudulent practices could be higher in case of an individual as the uncertainty regarding the behaviour of an unknown individual is higher than the agency. Also the people planning to come back to the country should be cautious of the asset in which the broker is putting the money. Ideally NRIs should check whether their money is put in real estates developed by renowned developers or in real estate projects towards completion. True information disclosure by the real estate agent to the NRI and its subsequent monitoring can fasten the building of trust between the agent and the NRI. Class of real estate asset also holds key regarding how fast the NRI could realise the dream of actually living in a new home in his/her home country after the money has been invested in that asset class.
Also, property grabbing often acts as a barrier for the NRIs who are planning to come back to their country. Efficient laws, speedy recoveries of property, punishment of all agents involved in such property grabbing could work and help in brain gain. Punjab has already amended the East Punjab Urban Rent Restriction Act of 1949 to sort out the cases of property grabbing of NRIs.
This kind of legal reforms along with laws regulating unaccountable practices of brokers could go a long way in bringing back the people (who want to come back to the country and settle in their own homes in India by buying properties in India in a post financial crisis regime) and that could lead to a brain gain for the nation.
Even we could set an example for our neighbouring nation like China where significant brain gain has been happening but in a very different way. Definitely we have to work towards this brain gain through our own "Jugaadu", innovative way. That's why our nation is so interesting as a place to stay and as a subject of research, policy making and implementation.
Anando
Sunday, January 10, 2010
"Does any one know of movement of Iranian directors facilitated by Film Festivals"
"Movement of Iranian directors facilitated by Film Festivals"! It might give a feeling that how could film festivals facilitate movement of Iranian directors. But before stating some explanations to how this could happen one needs to know from where the idea and title of blog came. The idea of this blog and its title came after knowing about an Iranian film called "No One Knows About Persian Cats" directed by Bahman Ghobadi. What is unique about this film? This film has been banned in Iran and uses lot of underground music, lyrics to show the domestic oppression in the political regime of Iran. The film won a special jury prize in Cannes Film Festival. A view point came out that Iranian filmmakers are using the international film festivals as a platform to put their voice against the political regime in Iran that came to power after the presidential election.
This has not happened only with the above stated film. Similar instances have happened with many other politically sensitive Iranian films that have been shown in film festivals of London, Berlin, Montreal. A recent trend shows various Iranian film makers are increasingly going out to international film festivals with their projects and has been raising their voice against the political regime in Iran through their films by using the platforms of international film festivals in various European and other countries of West. The ruling government in Iran has also taken initiatives to curtail such movie makings in Iran. Often, ruling government has been curtailing politically sensitive movie making in Iranian film industry with the defense of putting a logic of cushioning Islamic identities from western influence. Clash of conflictual identities between the state and the directors of Iranian films has become prominent. The push factor emanating from this clash within Iran has contributed towards movement of Iranians to various film festivals organized across various countries of West.
The clash between state and Iranian film directors has not been limited only to politically sensitive films. It has happened in case of a film called "The Circle" directed by Jafar Panahi that highlighted the position of women in Iranian society. The director of the film was arrested, but later he went with his movie to Montreal Film Festival. Clash of identities and lack of space of different values within Iran could have been one of the reason towards this movement. It could also be due to lack of intellectual freedom of directors, different value systems of the directors that differs from the cultural homogenisation process of the ruling Iranian state that has been happening in Iran. Sense of insecurity of state from the directors and capability of influencing the society by the directors towards a different cultural regime could have also forced the state to create pressure on the directors that further acted as push factors. So, within Iran itself, clash of cultures, values and identities between two entities viz. state and an intellectual class (individualistic identity) might have helped in creating such push factors. Additionally, the film festivals in the European countries have acted as incentives for these film makers to put their voice to get a recognition of their work. The film festival platforms also helped them in sensitization of the world about the clash of cultures, values and entities, identities in Iran. The question is to see how far these film festivals have acted as a significant pull factor in creating a movement of the Iranian film makers towards these festivals in comparison to the push factors. Statistical significance testing of the relationship between the "movement of the Iranian directors to the film festivals" and "push factors" (within Iran) and "pull factors" (from outside Iran) {with film festival platforms as proxy variable of pull factors} along with other relevant variable indicators could be a way forward to come out with some empirical conclusions in this domain of research.
Till I find enough evidence and data to carry out such a testing let the above question stay outside the statistical software for now.
Anando
This has not happened only with the above stated film. Similar instances have happened with many other politically sensitive Iranian films that have been shown in film festivals of London, Berlin, Montreal. A recent trend shows various Iranian film makers are increasingly going out to international film festivals with their projects and has been raising their voice against the political regime in Iran through their films by using the platforms of international film festivals in various European and other countries of West. The ruling government in Iran has also taken initiatives to curtail such movie makings in Iran. Often, ruling government has been curtailing politically sensitive movie making in Iranian film industry with the defense of putting a logic of cushioning Islamic identities from western influence. Clash of conflictual identities between the state and the directors of Iranian films has become prominent. The push factor emanating from this clash within Iran has contributed towards movement of Iranians to various film festivals organized across various countries of West.
The clash between state and Iranian film directors has not been limited only to politically sensitive films. It has happened in case of a film called "The Circle" directed by Jafar Panahi that highlighted the position of women in Iranian society. The director of the film was arrested, but later he went with his movie to Montreal Film Festival. Clash of identities and lack of space of different values within Iran could have been one of the reason towards this movement. It could also be due to lack of intellectual freedom of directors, different value systems of the directors that differs from the cultural homogenisation process of the ruling Iranian state that has been happening in Iran. Sense of insecurity of state from the directors and capability of influencing the society by the directors towards a different cultural regime could have also forced the state to create pressure on the directors that further acted as push factors. So, within Iran itself, clash of cultures, values and identities between two entities viz. state and an intellectual class (individualistic identity) might have helped in creating such push factors. Additionally, the film festivals in the European countries have acted as incentives for these film makers to put their voice to get a recognition of their work. The film festival platforms also helped them in sensitization of the world about the clash of cultures, values and entities, identities in Iran. The question is to see how far these film festivals have acted as a significant pull factor in creating a movement of the Iranian film makers towards these festivals in comparison to the push factors. Statistical significance testing of the relationship between the "movement of the Iranian directors to the film festivals" and "push factors" (within Iran) and "pull factors" (from outside Iran) {with film festival platforms as proxy variable of pull factors} along with other relevant variable indicators could be a way forward to come out with some empirical conclusions in this domain of research.
Till I find enough evidence and data to carry out such a testing let the above question stay outside the statistical software for now.
Anando
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Scene 2 - Another usual evening on the baddy court. Venue - Badminton Court, Time - 6 p.m. (Continuation)
In the last blog, I had mentioned that how one day the expectation hypothesis that I had created in the badminton court got questioned. The next set of question which came on mind was with what expectation hypothesis between the caller and the badminton player a truthful information is revealed. The answer was quite simple and was buried in the mystery that all social scientists, economists try to unravel with the wide world of economics of information. Probably, when the caller has already been informed by the player about his baddy playing routine practice, its best for the baddy player to reveal the truthful information so that the trust that has been created by truthful revelation of information in past experiences persists. A truthful information creates trust and that trust create future expectations between both the caller and baddy player to maintain the trust levels at each time period by revealing truthful information. So its the incentive of the baddy player to reveal the truthful information to consolidate the expectation that has been created between the player and the caller. But the real question is will such an incentive to reveal truthful information exist for the baddy player under all circumstances.
Here the answer is really not so simple. In this regard I am really grateful to my very close friend Sambuddha Mitra Mustafi (who works for BBC) who raised a very interesting question yesterday on facebook to the earlier blog of badminton. His view point was under various circumstances based on at what state the game is the chances of telling a lie can go up or down. So, Mustafi's view point was that - "if a baddy player is on matchpoint or close to winning he/she will lie at home to stay back in the baddy court" and "if the baddy player is in a worse condition he/she could find an excuse to escape by means of the call from home". Once this view point came yesterday, I kept on thinking till quite late night and a very interesting discourse to the expectation hypothesis (developing betweeen callers, receivers) that I was trying to set up came up.
The expectation hypothesis (which is more generic in nature with an analogy to general equilibrium models we create through some kind of CGE structures) that I was trying to set up was totally based on the level, nature and degree of exchange of information between the caller (from home) and the receivers (in the baddy court). Based on that fact, I was trying to establish a generic theory of trust, information and expectation hypothesis between two individuals under various conditions of their relationship status and information disclosure levels between them. But, I had totally missed, neglected out certain scenarios (as we call them in economic or policy modelling) that could outweigh this generic theory by creating different incentives for a baddy player to tell a lie or a truth based on the state of the baddy and the inherent expectations of the baddy player about winning and loosing a game.
So this raises the scope for another set of thinking where I would now try and test this generic theory of trust, information and truth/lie telling by creating more scenarios of incentives for the baddy player. This creates more incentives for me to have some sleepless nights, till I can find out some answers through sample testing on these lines in Scene 3 of the next blogs to come.
Anando
Here the answer is really not so simple. In this regard I am really grateful to my very close friend Sambuddha Mitra Mustafi (who works for BBC) who raised a very interesting question yesterday on facebook to the earlier blog of badminton. His view point was under various circumstances based on at what state the game is the chances of telling a lie can go up or down. So, Mustafi's view point was that - "if a baddy player is on matchpoint or close to winning he/she will lie at home to stay back in the baddy court" and "if the baddy player is in a worse condition he/she could find an excuse to escape by means of the call from home". Once this view point came yesterday, I kept on thinking till quite late night and a very interesting discourse to the expectation hypothesis (developing betweeen callers, receivers) that I was trying to set up came up.
The expectation hypothesis (which is more generic in nature with an analogy to general equilibrium models we create through some kind of CGE structures) that I was trying to set up was totally based on the level, nature and degree of exchange of information between the caller (from home) and the receivers (in the baddy court). Based on that fact, I was trying to establish a generic theory of trust, information and expectation hypothesis between two individuals under various conditions of their relationship status and information disclosure levels between them. But, I had totally missed, neglected out certain scenarios (as we call them in economic or policy modelling) that could outweigh this generic theory by creating different incentives for a baddy player to tell a lie or a truth based on the state of the baddy and the inherent expectations of the baddy player about winning and loosing a game.
So this raises the scope for another set of thinking where I would now try and test this generic theory of trust, information and truth/lie telling by creating more scenarios of incentives for the baddy player. This creates more incentives for me to have some sleepless nights, till I can find out some answers through sample testing on these lines in Scene 3 of the next blogs to come.
Anando
Mobile phone loud speakers as lie speakers in badminton court
Scene 1 - An usual evening on the baddy court. Venue - Badminton Court, Time - 6 p.m.
People have assembled and have formed two teams for playing a doubles badminton match. Suddenly, the mobile phone of one of the team members of the playing team rings up. The player says that he is busy in some work and so would be getting late for home. The phone was in loud speaker mode and so one could realise the phone was from one of the family members from home expecting the person (playing baddy) to come home to fullfill certain family responsibilities. Immediately, the mobile phone loud speaker became a lie - speaker. The question which immediately sprang up in my mind is that why does a person have to tell lie about the fact dealing with playing badminton. Lie could come from fear many times. What could be the possible sources of fear that could lead to telling lies? Is playing badminton not accepted by family members in the evening once somebody has family responsibilities or gets married? Does the expectation amongst family members differ about the individual who is playing badminton? So although the individual relaxes at the end of the day by playing badminton, still he has to tell a lie to the family members by not disclosing the information about baddy playing to the family members as the baddy player has a fear of consequences of not matching the expectations of family members. Or is it that the baddy player expects that if he discloses to family members about his baddy playing they would be unhappy due to a jolt in their expectations. Then why could they be unhappy. Probably family members expect the baddy player to do something else other than playing baddy. So expectations have a role to play behind telling these lies regarding playing baddy in the evening. The nature of the expectations between the player and the person calling in mobile also change depending whether the person playing baddy is married, unmarried, staying alone, has girl friend or boyfriend, lives with family and so on. The propensity of telling a lie also depends on who is calling the baddy player. These observations were summarised after observing many such incidents of lie speakers through the loud speaker of mobile phone in the baddy court. Then I started thinking of making my own sample size to analyze in which cases the chances of telling a lie goes up and under what kind of expectation hypothesis the chances go up. Suddenly, one day then the next scene of this script happens -
Scene 2 - Another usual evening on the baddy court. Venue - Badminton Court, Time - 6 p.m.
Again a phone comes in the midst of a badminton match and one of the badminton players doesnot tell a lie and exactly reports that he is playing badminton and would be late for home. My entire research hypothesis about lie telling in mobile in baddy court gets questioned and I form a new set of expectation hypothesis. The findings of those analysis would gradually come in the next segments of blogging.
Anando
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