Economic
Survey of India of 2024 for the first time has raised a valid concern about the
prioritization process and order of attainment of India’s Climate and
Developmental Goals. Chapter 6 of this year’s Economic Survey cited the work of
Mike Hulme to make a point that – “ It is quite easy to imagine future
worlds in which global temperature exceeds 2°C warming which is 'better' for
human well-being, political stability, and ecological integrity; for example,
than other worlds in which – by all means and at all costs – global temperature
was stabilized at 1.5°C."
This year’s Economic Survey, therefore, highlighted the
point that prioritizing only the temperature-bound climate goal of 1.5 degrees
Celsius without balancing out the developmental costs of such a goal on
low-income and developing countries might not be ethical when viewed from the
lens of human well-being, political stability, and ecological integrity. This
is particularly true while considering the work done by Richard Tol in 2024,
where he showed that the welfare-equivalent income loss due to a 2.5-degree
Celsius warming relative to pre-industrial times is always significantly higher
for developing countries.
A focus on income, wealth, equity and distribution goals are
equally important for developing countries to create their future resilience to
fight the adverse impacts of climate change and global warming. Hence, a blind
focus on temperature goals of climate action can often be biased against the
equity and distributive justice aspects of developing countries. Therefore, a
non-aligned, non-holistic approach and focus on climate action through
renewable energy transition can be detrimental to the developmental goals of
people in developing countries. This is particularly true because any energy
transition from one dominant fuel to another on a national, global, or local
scale is inherently a protracted affair as stated by Vaclav Smil in 2014. It
might take 50 to 60 years to happen with constant perseverance by generations.
A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is not an exception.
Moreover, often such transitions are marked and fraught by
conflicts and knowingly and unknowingly might not be people-centric. A study by
Sovacool et. al (2022)
of which the author was also a part, shows that different actors, tactics,
and outcomes are at interplay for the clean energy transition in seven carbon-intensive regions in Asia,
Europe, and North America. Based on a data set of 130 case studies, the
research shows how tactics (such as litigation or protest) impact outcomes
(such as remuneration, policy change, concessions, or labor protections) for
different fossil fuel to clean energy transitions like solar, wind, hydro, and
nuclear. The research highlights the importance of actors, nudges by the actors
in terms of – a) tactics (like litigations, meetings, protests), and national
and international institutional responses to national, supra-national, and
global pressures impact the fossil fuel to clean energy transition. The
research through a cultural, sociotechnical, and comparative perspective based
on the data of 130 case studies proves that goals of people-centric clean
energy transition are often refracted through local, subnational, and national
institutions catalyzed through local mobilizations which are either in support
or opposed to fossil fuel to clean energy transition.
These
findings further substantiate Vaclav Smil’s work in 2014 and strengthen
the need to have strong social enablers and nudges for a clean energy
transition in developing countries to happen which are generally time-consuming
and can last for 50 to 60 years. However, while the countries move, and transit
in such a time-consuming pathway, the wiser strategy can be to reduce energy
and material consumption of developing, developed countries with an equitable
wealth and income distribution between the developed and developing countries
and within developing countries. This in a way can in the long term be useful
to create ecological integrity, political stability, and equity for fighting the
adverse impacts of climate change on poverty and development in the future.
Mission Life of India primarily focuses on such a clarion
call through an ethical and moral lens which also finds a mention in the
Economic Survey of 2024. The global literature on reducing such a demand for
energy and material consumption has already been outlined in the “Degrowth
Literature” which mentions a steady state of economic growth by progressively
reducing emission intensity, resource, and material consumption in the growth
path. India which has on average achieved an economic growth rate of 7% - 8%
with an emission growth rate of 4% is also on track towards creating a
successful example of a country that can “Degrow” while following its “Economic
Growth”. However, the long-term success of such a path will only depend on
social nudges which can progressively reduce energy and material consumption in
the production and demand cycle of economic goods and services of the country.
Once, such strong nudges to facilitate ecologically friendly behavior from both
supply and demand sides are in place, India can attain its Viksit Bharat Goal of
2047 while being a front runner in the
climate action goals of the world by continuing to be a social and
politically stable country.
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