Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Can Climate Change create a new liberal regime?

The latest Australian wildfire is being considered as one of the worst extreme consequences of human induced climate change impacts. However, climate scientists through the Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change titled - "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation"  have already predicted about the possibilities of such climate extreme related disasters. The recent occurrence of this massive bush fire is being explained scientifically through the persistence of extreme drought conditions due to the climate change. The worst part is that the wildfires are so extreme that they are triggering their own thunderstorm and leading to a massive "Khandava Dahan". The initial parametric conditions, pattern structure of the event are following a nonlinear differential equation structure which is constantly creating an exponential, spiralling and chaotic path. Many natural events can be of this type depending on their initial conditions and the degree, nature of the pattern of accumulation or depletion over time.

In order to bring an analogy of the event to a Hindu mythology, Khandava Dahan was also caused by the humans where many innocent animals died as a sacrifice to the politics of the human on the earth. A strive for power and kingdom also led to the sacrifice of animals. Somethings, however, donot change ever. Today, in an Anthropocene, therefore, owing to human induced impacts of climate change, the earth is bearing the cost. The Special Report of IPCC has already predicted these types of extreme events due to the shift in the tail of the event occurrence distribution curves which indicates the probability of the occurence and recurrence of these extreme events.

All scientists working in the special report have predicted that there will be an urgent need to create more humanitarian, relief based measures to enhance the resilience of the ecosystem which can be impacted from the impacts of climate change. Scientific data based measures, adaptation and coping mechanisms and systems need to be built up immediately to address the risks and exposure to these extreme events in future. And the reality is - "These events are going to increase."

 However, there is still a little window of time before it hits the peaking point if we act with urgency. The sense of urgency in these actions are enmeshed with politics too.

Coincidentally, the wildfires have set in and around Sydney and New South Wales. The current liberal party head of Australia, Mr. Scott Morrison, also comes from Sydney and studied economic geography at the University of New South Wales. Climate disasters and Dystopia always create a background for a magical fiction. Therefore, a leader who heads the liberal party and studies economic geography also has to see the break out of a disastrous, catastrophic event during his regime. Human relief measures are also on full board with the plethora of media visuals potraying the desperate, empathetic, rescuing hugs between scared, bawling kangaroos and kind humans. A Khandava Dahan (induced by human greed and human greed induced climate change) has also created a new love and bonding between the nature and humans. Hence a balance is also created. This is fiction and magical realism at the same time. However, if these disasters have to be dealt with, then the adaptation measures need to be strengthened. It will also mean implementation  of measures which reduces human greed and creates a larger policy push towards conservation measures. These conservation measures have to come out as policy and political decisions.

Some of the core tenets of liberal party in Australia are based on a right of the centre vision with promotion of conservative, liberal conservative, conservative liberal and classical liberal futuristic vision. It also relies on economic liberalism, free markets, individualism and small government.

The recently occurring catastrophe can lead to a dystopic earth too if frequency of such events increase in the future. Will such possibilities enable and create a larger push to change political vision of different leadership across the world starting from Australia which is currently suffering. However, similar such sufferings have already happened in Mozambique and in other parts of Africa and Latin America too very recently. Will nature, the science of climate change and action push us to change different political vision all across the world as an imperative to survive on the Earth? Will there be a convergence between the right of the centre and left of the centre towards centre to ensure survival of species on Earth which as a co-benefit will also lead to a political peace on the land of Earth? These are the questions which are left towards the future of a science of fiction story. Some of these types of political questions enmeshed with dystopia are also dealt in - "Lucy and The Train: Tryst with Sustainability"  and in an upcoming book of the Lucy series. However, these are the questions that the world will deal with more in the future days in whatever form it comes. Till then, the characters and plots are being shaped up organically every moment by nature and all species and humans on the earth in the age of an Anthropocene.