Impact of Maoist Movement on Traffic Load Shifts - Fuzzy Neuron Unwinding of a Sunday

The recent violent upsurge in Maoist movement was reflected in the train blast (in West Bengal) that claimed so many innocent lives. It was announced that train traffic from and towards West Bengal through Maoist dominated belts would be stopped for security purposes. Then will this imply a shift in some passengers from train towards air flight route (travelling between West Bengal and other places of India) during the night to avoid the security threats. The answer is not clear. But definitely, these security threats might have an effect on traffic shifts from one form to the other. Shifts in traffic loads and form owing to shocks like the one mentioned here can be analyzed using some of the modelling techniques. One such technique, could be using the fuzzy neuron system design technniques.



Till last year, the word fuzzy neuron technique itself was a very fuzzy word to me. It was only one day, while discussing with my colleague Manish in TERI (who has a vast knowledge on science policy theoretical domain), on issues of innovation and potential of commercialisation of technologies from lab to market, the idea of fuzzy designing came up. Following that, read some initial literature and the more I read about this application tool, it became clear how so many incidents around us could be explored through this application technique which has been largely used by students of engineering. The importance of applying this tool in studying various hazy areas of social science became crystal clear. Once I got convinced about that fact, the journey didnot stop there. The journey of learning about this technique got a new meaning on one of the Sunday afternoons of last month.



This was the day when I went to have a mock, training and discussion session with my elder brother's (Dabhai) multifaceted, talented (extremely good portrait artist, a person who has worked on fuzzy system applications in analysing various engineering problems in the domain of civil engineering) close friend Debargha. The discussion initiated with a specific problem of how he had applied fuzzy neuron designing techniques in analysing road pavement behaviour. The complex mathematics that went behind in analysing the pavement behaviour was explained through simple illustrations, graphs, equations, intuitions over cups of tea and four hour long discussion. Mystery behind the fuzzy designing was gradually unwoven by a discussion format that was very much transdisciplinary as well as multidisciplinary. Once the session got over, I realised there are so many areas in social science applications to policy making where this tool can be used.



Immediately after few weeks, the Maoist attack on the train took place. I could clearly see how a research problem analysing the shifts in train traffic behaviour could be demystified through fuzzy neuron system designing. If we apply fuzzy systems in this case then, the attack could be seen as fuzzy shocks in the model with different transitional probabilities of going from one state to the other. The value of such probabilities would depend on what kind of distribution we run in such a model. Fuzzy systems analysing switchover of passengers to air traffic from train due to shocks like Maoist attack would also need to incorporate series of other variables like air, train tariffs and innumerable complex set of socio economic variables. The tariff variables would be again a complex outcome of several demand and supply side factors all of which might not be captured by this system of designing. In this context, one word of caution is that no model is sacrosanct by itself and often fails to reflect the criticality of different socio economic variables, factors of the society. This has been time and again proved, the latest of which lies in the failure of the modelling applications that could not visualise the financial meltdown in developed countries.



However the point, I am trying to make is - models have limitations, but they are still used to give an estimated directional linkage towards policy making viz. social science applications in policy making. It is in this context, the world today needs more of multi and transdisciplinary research where minds from various streams and schools of thought need to analyse, see through a problem using different philosophical bents of mind. In our generation and in the days to come, with growing complexities of a society (which is being observed in fragmentation in all forms and segments of the society), it is very important that we learn from each others applied mindsets and try to seek solution of complex societal problems like the one with which I started this blog.



Once we are able to that with the help of a very different form of educational, institutional structures in our country, we can really help in some ways the policy makers to find some direction in addressing certain key issues of our and future generation.

Mangalore Air Crash and Compensation Structures -

The disturbing incident of "Mangalore Air Crash" was followed by declaration of compensation for the families of crash victims. A compensation amount was declared by the aviation minister. According to experts, this compensation is based on standard compensation guidelines as prescribed by a protocol that deals with aircrashes when an airline taking off from one country crashes in another country while landing.

Insurance experts would suggest that the compensation should be based on income levels, level of damages caused by the accident. But is it the right approach of valuation basis for compensation measures of accident. The larger ethical question is that loss of human life should always be compensated in a similar way in a developed, progressive society irrespective of family and income background of victims. Loss of human life of a villager from Kosi flood is equally important as loss of middle income class citizen from a plane crash. Do we have valuation mechanisms in place in the country that designs compensation structures from natural disaster or accidents in a standardised way with a larger focus on the quality of human life dimension? This brings us to the question of estimating the value of a human life in a country like India. That value would definitely differ across the various segments of our Indian society. Its high time somebody undertakes an exercise of estimating value of human life in India across different societal strata. Once that exercise is being undertaken, the information could be centralised through electronic platform. Such data could be used by policy makers, number crunchers to design compensation structures that doesnot merely emphasize on income, damages but focuses largely on the valuation of a human life and its existence. So what is right now missing in the compensation structures of natural disasters, accidents is an ethical human rights based approach. Its high time that we move towards such rights based compensation structures as a step to move towards an egalatarian society where human existence from any part of the society is given an equal preference.

Once such an approach is introduced into the compensation structures it could create new dimensions for its applications even in the domain of adaptation measures required for addressing effects of human induced climate change on the society of developing and less developed countries. This becomes more crucial as many of these countries could be victims of human induced climate change in future if GHG emissions are not tackled and checked properly.

Mangalore air crash really sparked up a rights based thought process in compensation structures that could hold a key towards bringing fairer recognition of human life in comparison to what exists today.

Entropy and the Maoist Problem - Applying the lense of Georgescu Roegen

In the entire training span of learning streams of economics from 1999 till 2010 (month of May), I had left out an important stream of thought process. This realisation surfaced within me when I was introduced to a very enriching philosophical discourse of "Georgescu Roegen" by my colleague Shailly. Shailly gave me three very interesting papers by Georgescu Roegen dealing with - a) applications of entropy law in analysing economic production systems questioning neoclassical production theories, b)inconvenient philosophical questions regarding the applications of mathematical tools in "economic science", c) debate and contradictions between neoclassical economists and contributions of Georgescu Roegen.

ENTROPY LAW
After reading three papers, I immediately found out similarities between an entropic system and the Maoist problem. Georgescu Roegen applies entropic system and highlights how resources should be taken as part of production systems. In such a relationship, the inputs are not substitutable but follow a complementary relationship. So according to Roegen, resources are transformed from one form to another with the inputs playing a more transformative agent role. It is with the transformation process in natural science, entropy law mentions about irreversibility of process in matter transformation. Such irreversibility is also applied in case of heat exchange processes. With respect to tranformation of matter, if it has to be made reversible, energy has to be released or absorbed into the system.


MAOIST PROBLEM AND CONNECTIONS WITH ENTROPY LAW
The Maoist problem at the grass roots are originating owing to fractured mandates between state and local people. Local economic systems could be seen as a seperate social system not aligned to the other society beyond the domain of the rural economic systems. There is a social pressure within these local economic systems to seperate away and move far from the state control. With larger state oppression such a pressure would increase and there will be a force on the local social systems (where Maoist problem is arising) to move and get isolated for forming a seperate identity in an irreversible way. To create reversibility and bring back the local social systems unified with the state systems different forms of energy has to be absorbed. This cant be in the form of violent military operations. It has to be more in the form of negotiation, local level trust development with a state, centre coordination. In the absence of such, the irreversibile nature of the Maoist problem (or the force of moving away from state and getting isolated as a seperate social system, entity) would enhance and the entropy would increase.

CONCLUSION

Social systems also follow laws of fundamental natural science. I have a strong feeling that this will be validated in the long run in India.

Poetry of flying

Last month while coming back from France to New Delhi the poetry of flying struck its notes. The rythm of those notes had a homogeneity like the homogenous identity of clouds and space that exists way above 40,000 feet from the ground. The turbulence in the air that gave a lateral movement to the plane often brought a break in the continuous rythmic notes. But then again the turbulence itself became a part of the rythmic notes that was flowing through the mind and was creating its own music. The larger space outside which was no more than a black identity from the window of the seat also contributed in the poetry writing. The flash of moon brought some interesting interludes in between the verses which was making its own song. Revolving the notes, I was trying to interlink my own subconcious domain with the wide horizon of the atmospheric field through which I was flying. Like a rythmic pattern this continued over a long time. While the poetry, verses and the song was reaching its end, I heard the announcement of landing. The poetic journey above 40,000 feet from France to Delhi was coming to an end. I was coming down from the homogenous universal space to a heterogenous space below marked by several identities. Like the knob of a radio, was trying to switch the mind to the tunes of the heterogenous identities. Initially some frequency overlaps happened, but as the plane landed and the moon was well above the sky now, I found out a matching frequency. It came through the inbox of my cell phone which was finally switched on after landing in Indira Gandhi International Airport. The poetry of flying ended with a new matching frequency.

Anando

'Class Conciousness, Foreign Universities and Achalayatan'

While reading the - 'Interview, Eric Hobsbawm, World Distempers, New Left Review, 61, Jan - Feb 2010', the interlinkages between class conciousness and opening of foreign universities in India rose up in the upper layers of the mind. Eric Hobsbawm mentions in the article how schools, universities in the modern education system can create a class conciousness by creating a wealth divide between the people of the society having an access to the higher level of degrees (like Ph.d) and those who dont get that. Immediately, what I felt that - will with the opening of foreign universities in India (as being planned) the society in India would face a similar kind of class divide and class concious elitism seperated by a wealth divide. Will it happen - that the universities will come with a profit motive and it would allow and lead to an access to higher education for certain students from a particular segment of the society. Will it enhance the large inequity that exists in our country in today's context. While all these thoughts were coming on one side of the brain and going to the other side like a ping pong game, I decided to put a pause in the ping pong going inside my mind.


Immediately thought from the perspective of a fresh ping pong game. The thought process for the new ping pong game was driven by a behavioural agenda. I was thinking how much of this class inequity, conciousness feeling is driven by xenophobia. Or the other way round, how much of the decision of opening universities in India is driven by the feeling of being confident about dealing with pros and cons of globalisation. Is it driven by colonial hangover and politics of the philosophy of colonisation being unculcated through the new system of post modern education.

While thinking about all these, i sensed there is a sense of claustrophobia that germinates whenever i try to think that the interlinkage between class conciousness, opening of new universities could be seen through the lense of politics of the philosophy of modern education system. This is because since adoloscence, when i acted in two plays - 'Achalayatan' and 'Tasher Desh', a thought got deeply ingrained in adoloscent mind that we as a nation should always feel proud and confident to interact, mix and learn from different cultures all across the globe. When it comes to learning for humanity, the stale aspects of cultural conformist bias should not hinder us from learning.

The question in this cross road is whether the opening of new foreign universities would have such a human face and would help us to grow as a nation and society. Or will it be again creating a divide and class conciousness, elitism from profit seeking motives.

As a dreamer (often day dreamer also when i am lost in blank, stoic, lost world during the day) and optimist, I would like to feel that we as a nation would not move towards the brink of a new 'Achalayatan' but would move forward as a nation.

But really speaking time would tell and may be the great philosopher - 'Rabindranath Tagore' would have been able to enlighten us today if he would have been alive.

When Vishal Bhardwaj traverses time and space through his compositions in Ishqiya?

Since CD of the film 'Ishqiya' was being brought by my elder brother, I have been listening to two compositions of the film repeatedly. The two compositions are - a) 'Dil to Baacha' and b) 'Ibn Batuta'. The two songs have made me feel that Vishal Bhardwaj has traversed the entire landscape of time and geography through these two compositions. He has aptly created a brand from the time dimension of bollywood music. For instance, if one listens to the composition - 'Dil to Baacha', any body would get a feeling that bollywood music of sixties (with interesting leads of acordian) has come off the age and has arrived in 2010. The excellence of Vishal lies in the fact that he creates a melody from 'Dil to Baacha' that appeals to today's audience whose lifestyles are marked by fast paced life. But the album also doesnot leave any segment of the fast paced audience. That becomes evident when in track 5, ' Dil to Bacha' is remixed and well packaged for a techno centric cosmopolitan audience. The melody of 60s gets packaged in a new form and gets internalised in today's audience. Vishal traverses a long time span through this composition. Even in the packaged form of music he doesnot sacrifice the base melodies and intersparses them with some interesting guitar leads and base drums to capture the trendy audience. In both versions of the composition, the rustic Sufi singer 'Rahat Ali Khan' lends his voice who also excels in travelling the time dimension of bollywood music through Vishal.

In an effort to capture the space, Vishal uses the punch of folklore of 'Ibn Batuta' to capture the grass root audience. He truly traverses the space of India through this composition. Here also a trendy package to the composition is given to capture cosmopolitan audience through the packaged rustic feel of Indian folkmusic. So this composition also doesnot miss any segment of the market. It targets the grassroot as well as the urban segment through the trendy version of the folk music.

In short, Vishal through these two compositions ( 1. 'Dil To Bacha', 2. 'Ibn Batuta') capture the time and space dimension of the market of Bollywood music.

At the end of it he also succeeds well in doing that.

Is fulfillment of personal responsibility a way towards attainment of freedom? - Questions that arose during campus life in JNU

Through out the four semesters of the masters programme, the amazing flamboyance of an unorganised content of JNU campus life raised a fundamental question - "Does freedom mean lack of responsibility?" or "Can fulfillment of personal responsibility be a way towards attainment of freedom?". The wonderful days of hostel life in JNU and an ingrained cosmopolitan nature of the campus allowed everybody to pursue their own lifestyles without any interjection from anybody. Simultaneously there was also presence of strong micro community culture with various state specific representations and cross cultural intersparsed groups through out the campus .

Such micro community cultures if managed and maintained properly can always generate huge amount of social capital. Personally, I benefitted a lot being part of some of such micro communities one of which was based in our hostel room no - Jhelum 2. We in Jhelum 2 always shared our joys, sorrows, pains and often frustrations, anguishes together and the room was a witness to most of these human shades. The generosity of JNU campus life always gave us the freedom to have a relaxed time may be often shrugging some of our responsibilities of studying hard to pay back the loyalty towards tax payers money that is being used to fund our masters training in the premier institution.

Every time I introspected and realised that I have not been able to give the full effort to learn a credit course (often may be by attending too many hostel nights and watching too many Friday PVR night show releases at PVR priya complex), the question that emerged was whether this freedom is the real freedom. Because somewhere in the path of attainment of this freedom there was an opportunity cost of not giving the full effort of fulfilling personal responsibility. The two basic questions that emerged were - a) What is freedom to me in a campus life and what are the boundaries of that freedom? and b) What is the boundary of personal responsibility to me?

To be honest, the answer to the second question (in the first semester of the masters programme) was that as long as I am able to fulfill my personal responsibility in terms of managing my own studying, living expenses and finishing credit courses for getting financial independence in the form of a job, I was fulfilling personal responsibility. So by prioritising and balancing that first I was choosing a definition of freedom for myself. As said earlier, these two definitions of freedom and responsibility was very specific to me in the first two semesters. Gradually I realised, the vision was myopic and responsibility doesnot stop over there and in a campus like JNU which is the mirror of India in someways, responsibility has a social affiliation also. It means taking a little more commitment towards the subject, towards the system of learning a subject and finding out a path of emancipation through this system of learning which gives a huge sense of freedom through gathering knowledge (which doesnot end only in the exam sheets of the mid sem and end sem) by observing things around us in the campus. Once that path could be attained there is a huge sense of happiness that develops inside and one gets a sense of freedom. Knowledge gathering and its application towards social issues in the community domains of a campus life could really be one of the ways of fulfilling personal responsibility paving the way for attainment of freedom and happiness. Such freedom and happiness can generate leaders in the subject of social science and it might not always have to be through the orientation of a political affiliation and institution. The leadership quality can come by being more committed to the process of learning the science of a subject and applying them in day to day life during a masters programme with a positive attitude and sense of transparency, openness and accountability.

I was myopic in my learning process in the first two semesters, but today after almost more than 6 years of out of campus life, I dream strongly of the days when our future generation would come out as visionary leaders of social science by practising attainment of freedom through knowledge gathering and its application in campus life.